Morning brief: the war premium is back in oil

Oil, and the week the market has to get through

The Strait of Hormuz has gone quiet, and oil is pricing it. Brent crude sits around $87.84 this morning — down a fraction on the day, but up almost 13% over the week and more than a quarter over the month. The reason is a stretch of water: the Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of the world's traded oil in normal times, and after nine consecutive nights of US strikes on Iranian targets, traffic through it collapsed — one recent count found six vessels crossing in twelve hours, against roughly 130 a day before the fighting. That gap is what traders call a war premium: the extra money paid not for oil that has actually stopped flowing, but for the risk that it might. Today's small dip came on nothing more than hints of renewed US–Iran talks.

Wednesday is the day the AI trade gets marked. Tesla and Alphabet both report second-quarter results after the US close on 22 July, with Intel following on the 23rd. It matters more than a usual earnings night because of what happened last week: chip stocks sold off hard when a Chinese startup, Moonshot AI, put out a model claiming to close the gap with the best US systems. Alphabet's numbers are the first real read on whether the companies buying all those chips are still spending like they were.

Rates and your cash

The ECB decides on Thursday, and the tone will matter more than the vote. The Governing Council meets 23 July, with the announcement at 13:45 CET and Christine Lagarde's press conference at 14:30. Almost nobody expects a move — markets put roughly 88% on a hold, and a survey of 74 economists found them unanimous. That's because June already delivered the surprise: a quarter-point hike to a 2.25% deposit rate, the ECB's first increase since 2023, and July brings no updated staff forecasts to justify another. With oil now climbing again, about seven in ten of those economists still expect one more hike this year, most likely in September. For anyone holding cash at a broker, the interest you're paid on uninvested money tracks these rates, not the stock market.

What we're watching

Bitcoin ETFs have stopped bleeding. The 13 US spot funds took in $75.7m last week, after $197.4m the week before — a second straight week of inflows, ending nearly two months of money walking out. Small numbers by the standards of this market.

PayPal's board meets on the Stripe bid today. Directors were scheduled to discuss the $60.50-a-share offer from Stripe and Advent. As things stand the board considers the price too low but has not formally answered, and neither PayPal, Stripe nor Advent has commented publicly. Why the price isn't the board's only problem is in our piece on the bid.

And a Czech deadline lands next week. Polymarket went onto the blocked-gambling register on 13 July, and the 15-day window for providers to actually enforce it runs out around 28 July — until then the site still opens normally from Czech connections. Which countries have banned it, and what a player there actually risks, is set out in our nine-country rundown. The Fed follows on 29 July.

That's the brief. Sources below, as always — this is a summary of what was published, not investment advice.